Do you want to develop scenarios for dealing with a specific challenge your city or district is facing?

Developing scenarios

  • Stakeholders. Municipal governments and planners, investors, and private urban development companies, and NGOs.
  • Mode of assessment. Explore.
  • Method. Scenarios are developed in order to understand how the future may develop and to discuss long term planning as well as possible project developments. Developing scenarios can be effective for reflecting on alternative future prospects, e.g. changes in ecosystem services provision as a result of different nature-based initiatives. 
  • Scenario approaches can be either qualitative or quantitative, exploratory or anticipatory. They can be baseline or policy scenarios and different tools can be used simultaneously to develop alternative ideas of possible of desirable futures. Thus, scenario approaches can differ in levels, from highly exploratory to decision-oriented or from intuitive to analytical.
  • How to apply the method. Scenario approaches usually involve a common group of steps for scenario development: (1) establishing an advisory group, (2) selecting the most appropriate scenario approach, (3) choosing to make narratives, to visualise or to quantify scenarios, (4) identifying uncertainties as well as drivers of change, (5) identifying and developing alternative scenarios, and (6) analysing scenario outcomes and sharing results.   
  • When to apply the method. Scenario development approaches could be useful to discuss potential scenarios for the implementation of nature-based solutions in response to a need to address a particular challenge or to identify needs for planning future actions to minimise potential conflicts, e.g. communities affected by negative effects.
  • More information. For more information, please click here.

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